This follows on directly from the prior post: Avengers SNAP for 42m Americans. The First Circuit court denies the Trump administration leave to appeal full SNAP payments. Trump waves $2,000 'Tariff Dividend' in front of Americans while golfing. His Treasury secretary immediately starts to walk that back to say it will be part of tax benefits not a cheque to households. Democrat Senators fold on shutdown with a pinkie promise to delay the ACA subsidy decision.

The affordability messaging from the recent electoral trouncing featured strongly. Remember when Trump described "groceries" as "an old-fashioned word, but a beautiful word" whilst claiming prices were falling (they weren't), then he pivoted after Tuesday's election losses to adopt what he called "this new word called affordability". A man who admitted he'd "never even gone to a food market" lecturing Americans about grocery costs whilst 42 million SNAP recipients faced benefit cuts and furloughed workers wondered if they'd get paid. The optics were extraordinary: posting phantom $2,000 payments from his golf club, hosting Great Gatsby parties whilst benefits lapsed, and treating common words as exotic discoveries whilst actual families faced actual hunger.

As before a mess of governance by gut reaction and social media proclamation while people are stuck between rocks and hard places. Furloughed workers don't know if they will get backpay, fired workers job hunting, and returning workers face the impact of programme cuts made during shutdown.

All against the backdrop of the Fed pouring cash into the economy at the end of October to stave off a liquidity crisis, multiple 3rd - 5th November tech stock / crypto jump scares, and more political noise than most can bear.

From this point on it is a summary from Claude Sonnet 4.5. Created from collected sources and more analysis than is probably healthy.

The Saga: 8th-10th November 2025

Background to The Weekend

Election Results Drive Narrative Shift: The prior Tuesday's elections (4th November) delivered devastating losses for Republicans coast to coast, with affordability emerging as the decisive issue. The "tariffs are taxes" message was breaking through, particularly Senator Amy Klobuchar's framing that Trump's tariffs amount to "a nearly $2,000 tax on American families".

Trump spent the weekend at his golf club in Florida, doing nothing to resolve the government shutdown as it entered its sixth week, with $85 billion in GDP losses mounting.

Sunday 9th November: The $2,000 Phantom Payment

Trump Posts from Golf Club on Truth Social:

"People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k's are Highest EVER. We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone."

The timing can be viewed cynically: posted the day before Monday's crucial cloture vote to reopen the government.

The Pattern: As PoliticusUSA noted, "When Donald Trump gets into political trouble, like say after his party gets trounced coast to coast in an election, one of his favorite tricks is to start promising cash to the American people."

The $2,000 figure was strategic - a direct counter to Klobuchar's "$2,000 tariff tax" framing. However, as the article observed, this was "like someone stealing your wallet to pay you back the $20 that they owe you" - tariffs are taxes paid by consumers, so Trump was promising to return a small portion of money consumers had already paid.

Sunday, 9th November: USDA Escalates

States Ordered to "Undo" SNAP Payments: The New York Times reported that the Agriculture Department issued a memo late Saturday commanding states to "immediately undo" any actions providing full SNAP benefits. The guidance threatened "harsh financial penalties" for states that did not "comply quickly."

Patrick A. Penn, Agriculture Department official, wrote: "To the extent states sent full SNAP payment files for November 2025, this was unauthorized. Accordingly, states must immediately undo any steps taken to issue full SNAP benefits for November 2025."

The memo specified states could lose access to federal money for SNAP programme management and may be "liable" for funding full benefits the federal government did not authorise.

Legal Analysis: Georgetown Law Professor David A. Super stated it would not be "legal" for the government to claw back benefits already provisioned without affording people due process. However, the memo served to "scare states partway along the process, and it's telling the states to turn back."

Later 9th November: First Circuit Rules

Critical Legal Victory: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit denied the Trump administration's request to put on hold the district court order requiring full SNAP funding for November.

This meant Judge McConnell's order requiring full SNAP payments would go back into effect once Justice Jackson's 48-hour administrative stay expires (approximately late night, 12th November).

The Implications: With the First Circuit denying the stay, the Trump administration had lost at the appeals court level. Full SNAP payments will be legally by Wednesday, 13th November.

Also 9th November: Multiple Fronts

Wisconsin Refuses to Comply: Governor Tony Evers issued a simple but powerful statement: "No." He said Wisconsin would continue fighting "against the Trump administration's efforts to yank food assistance away from Wisconsin's kids, families, and seniors."

States File Federal Lawsuit: Approximately two dozen states, including Wisconsin, brought concerns to a Massachusetts federal judge, requesting:

Force the Trump administration to restore all SNAP funds
Shield states from federal punishment during the legal uncertainty

The Justice Department strongly opposed the states' request in a Saturday filing, as the administration ratcheted up threats to punish local officials for allocating full SNAP payments.

Bessent Walks Back the $2,000 Payment: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on ABC's "This Week" and shot down Trump's promise:

"The $2,000 dividend could come in in lots of forms. It could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing in the President's agenda— no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on social security, deductibility of older loans— those are substantial deductions."

The Reality:

Likely NOT actual cash payments
Likely NOT stimulus relief
Just theoretical future tax policy changes requiring legislation
Won't materialise until 2026, if at all
Average benefit $1,000-$3,000 (not $2,000)
Less than 20% of households would actually receive $2,000

The appearance was described as "embarrassing for Trump" as Bessent made clear "no cash is coming to the American people."

Political Statements: Senator Amy Klobuchar: "The cruelty is the point. It is their choice to do this."

Representative Angie Craig: The administration "would rather go door to door, taking away people's food, than do the right thing and fully fund SNAP for November so that struggling veterans, seniors, and children can keep food on the table."

The Walmart Shrinkflation: Around the same time, the administration promoted claims that Walmart's Thanksgiving basket was "25% cheaper". Analysis revealed this was achieved through shrinkflation - fewer items and lower quality, not actual price reductions.

Monday, 10th November: The Cloture Vote

Senate Vote to Reopen Government: The Senate will hold a cloture vote on reopening the government. Reports indicated the vote is expected to pass with 60 votes, including 8 Democrats.

The Democratic Defectors: Excluding Senator Fetterman, all 8 Democratic senators who voted for cloture were over 65 and not seeking reelection, meaning they faced no electoral consequences for the vote.

The Deal:

Government reopens with continuing resolution
ACA subsidy fight pushed to December
Widespread scepticism that the December deadline would hold

The $2,000 Payment Influence: The phantom payment promise, posted Saturday night, provided political cover for the Sunday negotiations.

The Walk-Back Continues: Speaker Mike Johnson also walked back the payment, suggesting the "$2,000 benefit" could come from "tax removal for tips and other similar in-kind changes" - not actual cash.

The Prior $5,000 DOGE Dividend Promise

In addition to the $2,000 "tariff dividend," the administration had previously floated a $5,000 "DOGE dividend" supposedly from government efficiency savings under Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.

Social media users were asking: "What happened to the advertised $5,000 DOGE dividend?"

This phantom payment also disappeared without explanation, revealing a pattern of floating multiple payment promises to different audiences, with none materialising.

The Economic Reality Behind the Narrative

The Shutdown's True Cost: By 10th November, the 41-day government shutdown had cost $85 billion in GDP, according to economic analysis. This represents real economic damage that no theoretical future tax cuts could address.

The Liquidity Crisis Signal: The fact that Trump posted about a $2,000 payment - potentially knowing it would be immediately walked back - revealed someone in the administration understood the need for consumer liquidity. However, ideology appears to have prevented any actual relief:

SNAP cuts removed $8+ billion from consumer spending
Bank reserves at 4-year lows
Fed constrained by 3% inflation
No actual stimulus forthcoming

The Pattern of Governance by Narrative

The 9th-10th November events exposed a complete strategy:

The Setup (Tuesday 4th Nov):

Elections show affordability is decisive issue
"Tariffs are taxes" message breaks through
Republican losses coast to coast

The Response (Weekend 8-9th Nov):

Trump at golf club, ignoring shutdown
Posts $2,000 "dividend" from golf club
Agriculture Dept escalates threats to states
Times post for maximum political impact (day before vote)

The Walk-Back (Sunday 10th Nov):

Bessent reframes as "tax decreases"
Makes clear no cash coming
Johnson echoes the walk-back
Political damage already done

The Payoff (Monday 10th Nov):

8 lame-duck Democrats provide votes
Government looks set to reopen (ACA fight delayed)
First Circuit ruling provides enforcement mechanism to make SNAP payments
SNAP crisis likely continues despite "reopening"

What This Means for the 42 Million Americans

The Political Theatre Resolved Nothing:

Even with government "reopening," the fundamental issues remain:

Administration's Stated Goal: Permanent programme elimination ("they're never going to come back")
Court Orders: First Circuit ruling is the only mechanism forcing compliance, expires late 12th November
Agriculture Department: Has threatened states with financial penalties for providing full benefits
No Actual Relief: The $2,000 payment was pure narrative, providing no real help
December Crisis Pending: ACA subsidy fight pushed to December, likely to collapse

The First Circuit Ruling Matters Most:

While political attention focuses on the cloture vote, the late-night First Circuit decision may be more significant. It provides legal enforcement mechanism for full SNAP payments, regardless of the administration's stated goals.

However, given the pattern of defying court orders at every stage, compliance remains uncertain.

The Civilisational Stakes

As one analysis noted: "This is policy theater at its most perilous. A paradigm shift from substance to symbolism, eroding trust in real-time. The consequences are civilisational: widening inequality, delayed recovery, and a populace fed on rhetoric while the economy starves for action."

The Numbers:

42 million Americans (1 in 8) dependent on SNAP
$85 billion GDP loss from shutdown
$8+ billion consumer spending removed by SNAP cuts
Bank reserves at 4-year lows
Phantom payments: $2,000 "tariff dividend" + $5,000 "DOGE dividend"
Actual relief delivered: £0

As I said before, what a god awful mess, as we suspect it to be.

Additional Sources 8th-10th November Events:

"The cruelty is the point. It is their choice to do this." - Senator Amy Klobuchar

"They would rather go door to door, taking away people's food, than do the right thing." - Representative Angie Craig

SNAP Drama and Ephemeral 'Tariff Dividends'

The Saga: 8th-10th November 2025

Background to The Weekend

Sunday 9th November: The $2,000 Phantom Payment

Sunday, 9th November: USDA Escalates

Later 9th November: First Circuit Rules

Also 9th November: Multiple Fronts

Monday, 10th November: The Cloture Vote

The Prior $5,000 DOGE Dividend Promise

The Economic Reality Behind the Narrative

The Pattern of Governance by Narrative

What This Means for the 42 Million Americans

The Civilisational Stakes

Additional Sources 8th-10th November Events:

Election Context and Affordability Crisis:

Trump's "Groceries" and "Affordability" Linguistic Disconnect:

The Phantom Payment Promises:

Agriculture Department and States' Response:

Legal Developments:

Political Response:

Economic Reality and Liquidity Crisis: