After a break in writing, events in the world pulled me back here. A President smarting from a parade of apathy (sponsored by Palantir and Coinbase), just started and reportedly finished a '12 Day War' to bolster strongman credentials.
This post should be read with the follow up analysis found here.
The most rational explanation of irrational events this week came from a political podcaster. 45/47 reportedly swithered on bombing Iran up to the very last moment. This came out during an interview with a Trump biographer who still has lines into the White House. It is not hard to believe that staff inside or outside the shrinking circle of trust need some kind of outlet.
He relayed reports that Trump remained furious and miserable about his lacklustre $40+m birthday bash (nominally the 250th anniversary of the US army) and millions turning out for No Kings protests. Also front and centre were the horrific events in Minnesota, where two Democrat politicians were killed and two were critically injured by the same politically motivated shooter.
Another Democrat official was tackled to the ground and handcuffed for the crime of interrupting Trump's Department of Homeland Security Secretary while brown. All while Trump appointees and cheerleaders were targeting blue states with rhetoric about freeing them from their democratically elected leadership. At the same time Trump was defending his move to federalise the Californian national guard and send in marine units to put down protests.
The protests were about the actions of ICE. Sending out hit squads with masks, no badges, unmarked cars, and no apparent basis for arrests.
Far from targeting known criminals and criminal gangs, the main targets appeared to be people easy to find and detain - people turning up to official immigration or asylum hearings, people at workplaces and schools. Some allegedly targeted using IRS data that was made available as part of DOGE systems disruption.
By definition not people under the radar. People in the US tax system. Many doing the right thing on a long path to citizenship.
It is not hard to understand the position of people who don't like seeing their country change. It is harder to fathom labelling all brown people criminal vermin who should be imprisoned and evicted.
More and more farmers and service industry bosses flagged the devastation it was causing. Workers were simply not turning up. Workers knew, papers or not, they could be scooped up, detained, and deported without due process.
Quotas for detaining people to keep the mass deportation optics coming is not a national security policy. Mothers separated from nursing babies, documented workers picked up from work sites, devastating those businesses. The father of 3 US marines working as a gardener was grabbed, cuffed, and beaten.
Just yesterday a new executive order came down to re-approve deportation to countries other than origin countries. El Salvador prison porn from Kristi Noem to be replaced with images from further flung places easier for people to forget about.
While writing this it hits different than hearing it in X-sized portions.
Then attention turned back to Israel and Iran due to Israel's bombing run on 13th June. Trump was reportedly caught between MAGA true believers like MTG and lever pullers like Bannon and Carlson. The 'No more forever wars' election promise was just about to be shredded. The true loyalists pivoted on a sixpence to provide air cover for the volte face.
Ted Cruz was taken out by Tucker Carlson in an interview. Carlson used tactics usually reserved for Democrats to highlight the wafer thin basis for tactical positions. There but for the grace of God was the noted sentiment from Trump. That was reportedly the source of the 2 week pause. A pause mocked by many as a repeated delaying tactic when things got dicey in terms of polling or support. Time to find a pitch to minimise MAGA backlash.
Then came the neocons, according to the biographer, the OG power brokers with interventionist tendencies. RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) according to staunch nationalist non-interventionists like Miller.
There were also a subset of Christian Nationalists like Lance Wallnau out on social media. Excited about revelations related Middle Eastern omens supposed to herald arrival of the Anti-Christ, plus a smattering of Q devotees itching for their constantly imminent takedown of the deep state.
It seems the neocons managed to persuade Trump he would be winning if he approved the strikes. He would look good. He would look strong.
That played into a moment - 47 feeling deflated and his natural affinity for shows of strength that impress other individuals in the strongman nexus. An antidote to the awful optics of the parade and surrounding events.
Reportedly the theme of calls going into Thursday / Friday was "I think I would look very good if I did this", hardening into "Fuck Carlson" indicating willingness to ignore that portion of the base.
On 22nd June, without approval from Congress, Trump bombed 3 uranium enrichment facilities in Iran, declaring the strikes a complete success and all targets obliterated (there was no credibility for that claim, in the information fog after such an event it can take weeks to understand impact).
Collectively a marvellous basis to engage in geopolitical life or death decisions that risk global destabilisation. Any nuanced intelligence about Iran's nuclear weapons status and current capability / intent has been totally obscured.
The nuclear non-proliferation aim was the focus in Vance's messaging. Threading the needle between a staunch base-pleasing non-interventionist position and a 'Sometimes you just need to step up' position. As part of that, in response to a reporter asking if the aim was regime change to a more amiable Iranian leadership, he stated that was definitively not the objective.
Within a few hours Trump was teasing regime change and the son of the old Shah of Iran (who the US installed after ousting Iran's first democratically elected leader) started to very visibly mirror US talking points in news reports.
Bombings back and forth continued between Israel and Iran, then Iran threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which 20 to 25% of all global petrochemicals pass. Come Monday, when petrochemical futures markets began to bake in events, the price per barrel of oil shifted upwards.
Paraphrasing two Trump messages on Monday: "[to US petrochem firms] Don't put fuel prices up! You are playing into their hands!" and "Department of Energy, Drill baby Drill, Drill baby Drill, start now!"
For those who don't know, the DOE doesn't drill. Energy companies do.
After apparent panic about price hikes at the pump - one nail in Biden's coffin, despite the globally envied economic recovery after covid - Trump messaged in the early hours of Tuesday morning to say Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.
There was no verified evidence of such an agreement, but it has since apparently been confirmed. The plan is for a 24hr staged climb down. Iran to cease all attacks at hour 12 and Israel to join them at hour 24. Unsure what Iran is meant to do if attacked between hour 12 and hour 23 and 59 minutes.
Putin has apparently sat back and watched with detached amusement - no-one is talking about Ukraine now.
Taking calls and meetings with all the key players, noting he has no desire to take action against Israel, implying it is almost like a Russian nation with 2 million Russian speakers there. I'm sure that was comforting for Netanyahu. Russia is in a very strong position as an alternative oil and gas supplier to places with more dependence on fuel distributed via Iran and allies.
Prior to the ceasefire announcement there was a further strike by Iran on US bases in Qatar in retaliation for the US strikes and more bombs exchanged between Israel and Iran.
What would you do if you saw a global competitor hanging his hat so blatantly on success of this ceasefire, terrified of trade impacts?
What are implications for an administration trying to divert attention away from their Big Beautiful tax windfall for billionaires, Medicaid / Medicare cuts, and blowing up of the debt ceiling?
How strong has this actually made America look?
Maybe the biggest question: If everyone is so well-schooled in how to direct Trump in a given direction, insulated when it goes South, why would that just be a domestic tactic? I think most vaguely strategic thinkers know for sure it's not.
Geopolitics hinging on a handful of power brokers and giant authoritarian egos, with an increasingly non-existent division between them and corporate interests. Citizens feeling the potential shift and taking collective action. Powerful people knowing they are in the minority. What a huge, incendiary and wholly less sophisticated mess than reported by most think pieces.
We owe our children better. We deserve a tiny glimmer of a sense of duty to the entirety of a country. That will not come if Trump goes and Vance is his replacement. The corporate takeover just accelerates.
Mainly thanks to South African Aparteid refugees Thiel, Sacks, and Musk, also known as he Paypal mafia. Plus some Palantir, OpenAI, Meta and other execs sworn in as Lieutenant Colonels in the Army Reserves, with access to oceans of our data and Presidential leave to influence defence of the nation.
Now back to putting one foot in front of the other to care for my family and earn enough to keep the lights on. It serves their purpose to terrify people into inaction. I believe the No Kings protests lit a very visible touch paper.
People looked around at apparent community apathy and dared not put their heads above the parapet. That is apparently no longer the feeling. Did America get a dozen days of 'waging war to bring peace' chaos in part to shift focus?
Many former supporters reportedly starting to doubt their decision to back a man who lied so blatantly on the campaign trail to secure power and avoid consequences of prior actions. A man who now wants a Nobel Peace Prize for demanding lulls in the global conflicts he amplified.
Interesting time to be alive. As one furious Gen X Mom stated: MAGA can fight its own wars. Put your alpha male big boy pants on, back your man, and prove how tough you really are.
Your elderly, draft dodging, morally bankrupt, abusive narcissist needs you. You broke it. You fix it.
Have a nice day.