The headlines today on most of social media infer that Supreme Court Justice Jackson just blocked full SNAP (Supplementary Nutritional Assistance Payments) for 42m Americans.
Like all such headlines it is soaked in nuance. Here is a timeline of the fight over SNAP payments in the last few messy weeks of shutdown:
10th October 2025: USDA sends letter to state SNAP administrators ordering them to stop processing November benefit payments. This directive came from the federal Department of Agriculture during the government shutdown, despite contingency funds being available.
Source: https://rollcall.com/2025/10/31/federal-judge-directs-usda-to-pay-november-food-stamp-benefits/
24th October 2025: USDA formally announces suspension of all November 2025 SNAP benefits. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins claims the agency cannot legally use contingency funds - a position that contradicts how previous administrations (including Trump in his first term) handled shutdowns.
Source: Same as above
31st October 2025 (Halloween): Secretary Rollins and Speaker Mike Johnson hold press conference. Rollins calls it "a lie" that contingency funds can be used for SNAP. Johnson says Democrats' lawsuits are "frivolous" and "false."
That evening: Trump hosts his lavish Great Gatsby party at Mar-a-Lago, hours before 42 million Americans lose food assistance.
Sources: Same as above
31st October 2025 (later): TWO federal judges issue rulings - one in Rhode Island (Judge McConnell) and one in Massachusetts (Judge Talwani) - both ordering USDA to use contingency funds. McConnell's order requires payment "as soon as possible" for 1st November.
The courts rejected the administration's claim it couldn't legally use the funds.
Sources: Same as above
3rd November 2025: In court filings responding to Judge McConnell's order, the DOJ announces administration will use $4.65 billion from contingency fund to pay only 50% of November SNAP benefits. They refuse to use Section 32 Child Nutrition funds to make up the remaining $4 billion needed for full payment.
The administration admits this will take "several weeks to execute."
Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/03/snap-trump-food-court-shutdown.html https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/politics/november-snap-benefits-government-trump
6th November 2025: Judge McConnell issues second order requiring FULL November SNAP payments by Friday 7th November. He rules the administration's decision not to use Section 32 funds is "arbitrary and capricious" and that they did not comply with his original order.
"People have gone without for too long. Not making payments to them for even another day is simply unacceptable."
Sources: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/snap-trump-food-stamps-shutdown.html https://abcnews.go.com/US/judge-orders-trump-administration-fully-fund-snap-benefits/story?id=127273708
7th November 2025 (morning): DOJ appeals Judge McConnell's order to First Circuit Court of Appeals, requesting administrative stay - halting the processing of payments pending leave to appeal. Simultaneously, USDA begins telling states it will comply and pay full benefits by end of day.
First Circuit (6:08 p.m.): DENIES administrative stay but promises to rule on stay pending appeal "as quickly as possible."
7 November 2025 (evening): The DOJ pushes the request for a stay pendng appeal up to SCOTUS because the First Circuit Court missed the 7th November deadline. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson issues administrative stay - but with strict 48-hour deadline to expire after the 1st Circuit rules. This prevents the full Court from imposing open-ended freeze while forcing rapid resolution.
"Given the First Circuit's representations, an administrative stay is required to facilitate the First Circuit's expeditious resolution."
Analysis: https://www.stevevladeck.com/p/190-snap-wtf Order: Supreme Court Docket No. 25A539
Summary The pattern: At every stage, the DOJ fought against paying benefits. When ordered by courts to pay partial benefits, they delayed. When ordered to pay full benefits, they appealed. The administration used every legal mechanism available to avoid feeding 42 million Americans during a shutdown they created.
This is the first time in SNAP's 61-year history that benefits have lapsed during a government shutdown.
There was cynical speculation on social media that this pitch to pay 50% was cooked up at the Mar-a-Largo Great Gatsby party. It formally hit the books on the following Monday. The optics of blocking SNAP payments while dancers lounged in giant champagne glasses was not lost on people.
The administration in a court filing told Judge Jack McConnell that it had declined the option he suggested to make full November payments for SNAP benefits by using at least $4 billion from the Child Nutrition Program, as well as from other unspecified funds.
Instead, the administration will use all of the $4.65 billion remaining from a contingency fund for SNAP appropriated by Congress for “November benefits that will be obligated to cover 50% of eligible households’ current allotments.”
McConnell, in a ruling on Friday, said the administration could not cease paying SNAP benefits. Before his order, the administration had rejected the idea of using the contingency funds in the face of the shutdown, which began Oct. 1. Dan Mangan, CNBC, 3rd November
The title of this post is obviously an homage to the Thanos moment, when fingers were clicked and half the living beings in the multiverse ceased to exist.
This drama has the same arbitrary flavour. The USDA order to states to stop processing SNAP payments for November. The 50% payment decision in the face of horrific optics. The assertion it would take weeks to sort the half payment that forced state hands to expedite. The DOJ appeal against the First Circuit Court to block to full payment. The shift to SCOTUS when the First Circuit could not produce a stay on SNAP payment by the hard deadline on Friday 7th. Now the position it has placed Justice Jackson in:
Justice Jackson's Role:
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson is the Circuit Justice assigned to the First Circuit Court of Appeals (Boston area). This means all emergency applications from First Circuit cases come to her first. She can either:
- Handle them herself, or
- Refer them to the full nine-justice Court
What a "Stay" Does:
A stay pauses/blocks a court order whilst appeals are heard. Here, the DOJ wants to stop Judge McConnell's order requiring the $4 billion transfer for full SNAP benefits. Without a stay, they'd have to pay immediately while appealing.
Who's Requesting This:
Solicitor General D. John Sauer - he's the government's top lawyer before the Supreme Court, representing the Trump administration/USDA. The Department of Justice's legal team acts on behalf of all federal agencies (here, the Agriculture Department under Secretary Brooke Rollins).
The Strategy:
DOJ is using procedural mechanisms to delay payments at every stage: appeal the order, request stay pending appeal, request administrative stay whilst considering the stay request. Each step buys time and keeps benefits frozen.
Jackson's Compromise:
Rather than deny the stay (and risk being overruled by the full Court with no deadline), she granted it BUT imposed a 48-hour limit after the First Circuit rules - forcing rapid resolution instead of indefinite delay.
That, at a length few social media users will dig into, is why we see these kinds of posts on X. It is 100% true that following court procedure is not helping families in immediate need. It is also true that KBJ just delayed some payments that would have gone through if no stay was issued.
Is it true that she is doing Trump's bidding: 100% NO! - This horrific impact is playing out because Trump's administration are using the shutdown to legislate whether they should support benefit claimants, because the administration wants to slash that spending, legislating in the court of public opinion - setting informal precedent via memes and AI videos.
The shutdown is continuing because Democrats are stuck between a rock and a hard place (the Republicans control Congress, Senate, and SCOTUS). Do they back down to permit horrific budget cuts and health insurance price hikes or continue a shutdown that hurts Americans, with the practical resolution further out of their hands because Republicans have been tacitly encouraged not to negotiate:
Republicans are not mandated to refuse negotiations, but Trump has:
- Refused to negotiate himself: Trump ignored letters from Democratic leaders Schumer and Jeffries asking for face-to-face meetings. "Democrats stand ready to meet with you face to face, anytime and anyplace," they wrote. Trump answered with silence
- Pushed for eliminating the filibuster instead: Trump has repeatedly urged Senate Republicans to end the government shutdown by eliminating the Senate filibuster (the 60-vote threshold), which would allow them to bypass Democrats entirely
- Set a "no negotiation until reopened" position: The White House official stated the administration's stance: "it won't negotiate until the government is open. 'They should open the government, and we'll meet with them on the tax credit and work with them on it'"
- Republicans following that lead: Republicans have refused to negotiate on extending ACA health care subsidies while the government remains shut down, insisting on a "clean" funding bill first
The core sticking point: Democrats oppose Republican bills because they don't include extensions of Affordable Care Act subsidies. Republicans refuse to negotiate on the subsidies until after the government reopens
So functionally his push for the nuclear option has created a negotiation stalemate.
The backdrop to this is a classic Trump business play: turn up the heat and pain to force a concession:
Trump's Own Words:
9th October 2025 (Cabinet Meeting): "We're only cutting Democrat programs. We'll be cutting some very popular Democrat programs that aren't popular with Republicans, frankly"
"The shutdown has been, you know, pretty damaging. I mean, not yet, because it's early, but it gets a little bit worse as it goes along, and we'll be making cuts that will be permanent. They wanted to do this, so we'll give them a little taste of their own medicine"
14th October 2025: "The Democrats are getting killed on the shutdown because we're closing up programs that are Democrat programs that we were opposed to. So, we're being and -- and they're never going to come back in many cases"
"So we're closing up programs that are Democrat programs that we wanted to close up or that we never wanted to happen... We're going to have a list of them on Friday, closing up some of the most egregious socialist, semi-communist... programs"
The Strategy:
The White House seeking to amplify pressure on Democrats by making clear the ways they would maximise the pain of a prolonged closure.
Analysis noted: "Republican leaders will be loath to make a move that could alleviate pressure on Democrats. If millions of Americans going hungry doesn't break open the deadlock, the shutdown could drag on even longer"
If anyone one is making Americans families the betting chips in this stand off, it is Mr Donald J Trump and his proxies. All are reportedly terrified of being hounded and primaried should they diverge from the ever changing message. Unfortunately, in the middle of this, KBJ became today's MAGA plaything. If she is accused of putting procedure ahead of families in need, what is Trump's DOJ doing?
What a god awful mess, as we suspect it was meant to be.
Sources for the last two sections:
Trump's Refusal to Negotiate:
- Trump ignored Democratic leaders' request for face-to-face meetings https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5594333-government-shutdown-deal-democrats-trump/
- Trump pressures GOP to eliminate filibuster instead of negotiating https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/07/politics/filibuster-trump-shutdown
- White House position: won't negotiate until government reopens https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/07/government-shutdown-democrats-schumer-trump-aca.html
- Republicans refuse to negotiate on ACA subsidies while government shut https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/11/7/republicans-swat-down-democratic-offer-to-end-us-government-shutdown
- Trump's filibuster push intensifies after GOP electoral losses https://www.npr.org/2025/11/06/nx-s1-5600150/shutdown-politics-election-filibuster-trump
Trump's Explicit Statements About Inflicting Pain:
- Trump (9 Oct): "We're only cutting Democrat programs" - Cabinet meeting https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/trump-government-shutdown-programs.html
- Trump threatens permanent cuts to "popular Democrat programs" https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/strategy-speaker-johnson-backs-gops-clean-cr-shutdown/story?id=126511106
- Trump: "They're never going to come back in many cases" https://www.notus.org/trump-white-house/donald-trump-democrat-programs-government-shutdown
- Trump: Shutdown is "pretty damaging... it gets a little bit worse as it goes along" https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/trump-threatens-permanent-cuts-democratic-programs-day-nine-shutdown-gridlock
- Trump promises list of "socialist, semi-communist" programs to cut https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-government-shutdown-news-10-14-25
- Analysis: Republicans "loath to alleviate pressure on Democrats" https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/30/politics/shutdown-snap-trump-asia
- White House strategy to "maximize the pain of a prolonged closure" https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/26/politics/government-shutdown-trump-firing-memo-democrats
- Analysis: "Test of which unfortunate Americans can bear the most pain" https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/politics/trump-shutdown-2025-elections-obamacare-tariffs-scotus-analysis
Context on Shutdown Dynamics:
- OMB: "Making every preparation to ride out Democrats' intransigence" https://www.npr.org/2025/10/17/nx-s1-5577136/government-shutdown-congress-trump
- Democrats emboldened after electoral victories to hold firm https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/05/politics/democrats-shutdown-deal-elections